Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc12e…1ca0 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+3%) realized +$34 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate89%16W / 2L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.2% +2.5% 100% 83% +2.4%
≤30d 6 +13.2% +2.5% 100% 83% +2.4%
≤90d 18 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 39% -4.8%
all 18 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 39% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 39% -4.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -13.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -22.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses16 / 2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 30
History coverage48d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? No 91¢ 91¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? No 87¢ 85¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? No 85¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? No 90¢ 89¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? No 98¢ 93¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? No 86¢ 86¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? No 87¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? No 92¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? No 97¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? No 94¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? No 90¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? No 95¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $40 +$9 +21%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $66 +$5 +7%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $10 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $70 +$6 +8%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 30 $30 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 30 $27 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Apr 29 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 29 $30 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 29 $30 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 90¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 87¢ $40 45h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 86¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 87¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 97¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 87¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY No 90¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY No 90¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 92¢ $40 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 82¢ $40 4d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 94¢ $10 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 92¢ $20 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 93¢ $16 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? SELL No 93¢ $9 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 95¢ $10 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 96¢ $10 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 94¢ $10 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 94¢ $20 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 93¢ $50 40d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 92¢ $50 40d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY No 91¢ $2 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.25 · official $232.25 (match) · 52 history records