Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc12e…7c8a other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,271 (+8%) realized +$1,298 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days−$263
14 days−$3,400
30 days−$2,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$301
sports 7% +$219
politics 3% +$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.7% -51.8% 0% 0% -65.4%
≤30d 22 -22.0% -29.4% 23% 23% -54.6%
≤90d 22 -22.0% -29.4% 23% 23% -54.6%
all 46 -15.7% -23.8% 30% 30% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 30% -4.3%
10% -31.1% 30% -13.5%
15% -37.7% 30% -21.8%
20% -43.8% 28% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$569 vs −$221 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$1,298
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage602d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Jun 29 $106 −$18 -17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $320 −$245 -77%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $284 −$277 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $112 +$170 +152%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,263 −$2,224 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ shots Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $106 +$192 +181%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $472 +$180 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $250 +$223 +89%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$190 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$125 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $134 +$873 +649%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $534 −$534 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $150 +$385 +257%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $228 −$228 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Feb 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $29 +$29 +100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $50 +$75 +150%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $350 +$855 +244%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? Dec 01 $1,000 +$998 +100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? Dec 01 $4,999 +$3,390 +68%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 21 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? Nov 16 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Clippers Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Kings Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Young Boys beat Shakhtar Donetsk? Nov 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Brugge beat Aston Villa? Nov 07 $90 +$189 +210%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $500 +$347 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? SELL Yes 18¢ $89 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 4¢ $74 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 15¢ $320 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $106 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $107 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $284 11d
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $112 11d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,263 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $305 12d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $102 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 12d
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ shots SELL No 0¢ $0 12d
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ shots BUY No 19¢ $10 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 12d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $472 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $473 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $250 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $203 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $132 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $106 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.96 · official $272.99 (match) · 84 history records