Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc12c…64c4 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$520 (+9%) realized +$520 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%72W / 48L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$134
14 days+$171
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$50
other 7% +$197
sports 7% +$123
world 1% −$56
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +31.1% +18.6% 68% 59% -1.6%
≤30d 34 +21.1% +9.6% 62% 56% -2.8%
≤90d 120 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 43% -4.6%
all 120 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 43% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -4.6%
10% -16.1% 31% -13.7%
15% -24.2% 23% -22.0%
20% -31.7% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses72 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage70d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$27 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$11 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 +$11 +157%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$17 +174%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $140 −$99 -71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $109 +$36 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $169 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $134 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $122 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $99 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $210 +$18 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$35 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$22 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$27 +340%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$7 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 16 $41 −$26 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $31 +$16 +52%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $17 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 14 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 14 $21 +$19 +93%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 11 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 11 $5 +$5 +94%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $48 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 92¢ $18 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $7 6h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $27 7h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $7 7h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $3 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $140 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $144 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $109 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $187 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $169 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $168 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $134 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $134 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 318 history records