trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 24¢ | $15 | $17 | +$2 (+12%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $56 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $29 | −$2 | -8% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 07 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Jun 26 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Jun 20 | $1 | $0 | -32% |
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? | May 28 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | May 28 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | May 27 | $17 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | May 25 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | May 24 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? | May 22 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | May 22 | $2 | +$16 | +964% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | May 09 | $3 | −$2 | -57% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 07 | $5 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? | Apr 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad | Apr 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Apr 24 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | Apr 23 | $6 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 2 | Mar 04 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $4 | −$3 | -80% |
| Nets vs. Wizards | Feb 23 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 23 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 50% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 29 | +25.6% | +13.7% | 55% | 7% | -7.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +13.7% | 7% | -7.2% |
| 10% | +2.8% | 7% | -16.1% |
| 15% | -7.1% | 3% | -24.2% |
| 20% | -16.2% | 3% | -31.7% |