trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $12,534 | +$37,809 | +302% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $1,939 | +$22 | +1% |
| Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 6000 (HIGH) in Q1 2026? | Apr 12 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Feb 01 | $904 | −$879 | -97% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jan 30 | $2,353 | +$658 | +28% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea ele | Jun 03 | $46 | +$87 | +190% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 03 | $25 | +$21 | +83% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 03 | $566 | −$324 | -57% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +151.4% | +127.5% | 100% | 50% | +227.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +67.6% | +51.6% | 67% | 33% | +226.4% |
| all | 8 | +43.7% | +30.0% | 62% | 50% | +174.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +30.0% | 50% | +174.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +17.5% | 50% | +148.1% |
| 15% | +6.2% | 38% | +124.1% |
| 20% | -4.2% | 38% | +102.1% |