Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc129…feac weather 596 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,275 (+2%) realized +$2,275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%574W / 22L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$4
14 days+$322
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 3% -9.5%
≤30d 294 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 596 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 3% -8.1%
all 596 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 3% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 3% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 1% -16.9%
15% -25.3% 1% -24.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.34 per $1 lost it wins $5.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses574 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)596 / 596
History coverage80d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 596 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $319 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $297 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 22? Jun 21 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $306 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $307 +$24 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $429 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $164 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $500 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $306 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $306 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $243 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $88 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $500 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $194 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $306 +$9 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 20? Jun 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $179 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $306 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $306 +$7 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $126 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $501 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $500 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 −$151 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $106 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $319 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $63 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $297 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $57 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $77 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $127 8h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $127 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $54 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 2413 history records