Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc128…2217 sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,529 (-10%) realized −$13,112 · open −$417
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%67W / 79L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$1,507est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$472
7 days−$4,075
14 days−$4,075
30 days−$4,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$10,294
other 4% −$2,433
world 2% −$2,058
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -84.2% -85.7% 11% 11% -70.2%
≤30d 9 -84.2% -85.7% 11% 11% -70.2%
≤90d 146 +4.4% -5.6% 46% 45% -19.5%
all 146 +4.4% -5.6% 46% 45% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 45% -19.5%
10% -14.6% 39% -27.2%
15% -22.8% 37% -34.2%
20% -30.4% 34% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$610) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$634 vs −$720 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized−$13,112
Unrealized−$417
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses67 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,507
Open positions4
Markets (closed)146 / 150
History coverage57d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $1,000 $662 −$338 (-34%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,407 +$596 +42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$49 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,086 −$2,058 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,515 −$1,500 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $1,008 +$224 +22%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $510 −$47 -9%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 03 $1,407 −$1,400 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season May 02 $205 −$200 -98%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 02 $305 +$426 +139%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 02 $606 +$263 +44%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 02 $304 +$208 +68%
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Anna Blinkova May 02 $100 +$11 +11%
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Tom Gentzsch May 02 $300 +$15 +5%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $502 +$67 +13%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 02 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $660 +$407 +62%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $2,925 +$1,272 +44%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega May 02 $101 +$23 +22%
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes Tormo May 02 $301 +$49 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $502 +$92 +18%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Clos May 02 $302 −$300 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $3,036 +$1,959 +64%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $3,033 −$3,000 -99%
La Bisbal: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 01 $383 −$373 -97%
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Lilli Tagger May 01 $409 −$334 -82%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $134 −$130 -97%
Ostrava: Dalibor Svrcina vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Cagliari: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Marcos Giron May 01 $102 +$485 +474%
Saint-Malo: Jessika Ponchet vs Viktorija Golubic May 01 $305 +$444 +145%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $3,637 −$3,600 -99%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio May 01 $305 +$419 +137%
Shymkent 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Mili Poljicak May 01 $305 +$408 +134%
Shymkent 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Andrej Nedic May 01 $306 +$441 +144%
Jiujiang: Yunchaokete Bu vs Coleman Wong May 01 $305 +$335 +110%
Jiujiang: Mark Lajal vs Fajing Sun May 01 $305 +$301 +99%
La Bisbal: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Elena Pridankina May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
La Bisbal: Alina Charaeva vs Daria Kasatkina May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Sofia Costoulas May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Huzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Rada Zolotareva May 01 $305 −$300 -98%
Huzhou: Xiyu Wang vs Polona Hercog May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Aix en Provence: Zizou Bergs vs Rinky Hijikata May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Shymkent 2: Edas Butvilas vs Max Hans Rehberg May 01 $305 −$300 -98%
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Alex Bolt May 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $2,003 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,407 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,115 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $971 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,515 2d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana SELL LNG Esports 89¢ $1,232 45d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL DN SOOPers 34¢ $463 45d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 36¢ $510 45d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LNG Esports 72¢ $1,008 45d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 87¢ $1,004 45d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin BUY Xtreme Gaming 87¢ $1,004 45d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin BUY Xtreme Gaming 74¢ $403 45d
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY Leviatan Esports 23¢ $205 46d
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga SELL Hubert Hurkacz 100¢ $731 46d
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Fnatic 100¢ $869 46d
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Fnatic 69¢ $606 46d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch SELL Vici Gaming 99¢ $512 46d
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Anna Blinkova SELL Tereza Valentova 100¢ $111 46d
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Hubert Hurkacz 41¢ $305 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.41 · official $703.41 (match) · 264 history records