Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc126…832c other 680 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,734 (+0%) realized +$3,739 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate80%644W / 164L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,375per market
Trades / day65.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$58,154
sports 24% +$70,333
world 17% +$684
crypto 13% +$805
politics 6% −$2,931
tech 4% −$3,589
weather 1% +$31
economics 1% +$14
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -56.7% -60.8% 42% 1% -32.6%
≤30d 808 -19.4% -27.0% 80% 1% -14.1%
≤90d 808 -19.4% -27.0% 80% 1% -14.1%
all 808 -19.4% -27.0% 80% 1% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 1% -14.1%
10% -34.0% 0% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -40.4% 0% -29.8%
20% -46.2% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$1,076 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$3,739
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses644 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)808 / 680
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3,375
Trades / day65.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Caracas FC 2 - 1 Botafogo FR? No 100¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denmark win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Great Britain win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Slovenia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Harry Hall win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hayden Springer win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Garrick Higgo win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Adam Svensson win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Adrien Saddier win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will John Vanderlaan win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Stephan Jaeger win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Johnny Keefer win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rico Hoey win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paul Peterson win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Davis Riley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chad Ramey win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Palestine 2 - 1 Kenya? Jun 17 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 17 $2,534 −$2,534 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
between 37 and 39 million view Jun 17 $732 −$732 -100%
Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Takumi Kanaya win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Luke Clanton win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kensei Hirata win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Palestine 2 - 0 Kenya? Jun 17 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Vince Whaley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Zac Blair win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
between 35 and 37 million Jun 17 $732 −$732 -100%
Will Sam Ryder win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Burundi leading at halftime? Jun 17 $9,333 −$9,333 -100%
Will William Mouw win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Carney Chukwuemeka: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24,451 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24,442 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24,391 2h
Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Set Handicap: Tsujioka (-1.5) vs Liu (+1.5) BUY Liu 100¢ $250 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $66 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $137 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $385 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $192 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.32 · official $209.32 (match) · 2223 history records