Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc123…0da5 other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 24% −$18
culture 8% −$9
politics 8% −$6
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$7
crypto 4% −$3
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage128d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $175 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $369 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $531 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $329 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $405 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $273 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $128 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $413 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $644 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 15h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $44 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $44 18h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 19h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $38 23h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $38 24h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 25h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 30h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 40h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 41h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 42h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 44h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 47h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 47h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1361 history records