Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc123…ed5b crypto 747 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,055 (+15%) realized +$1,069 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%145W / 601L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day60.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$45
14 days−$1,880
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$338
weather 16% +$48
politics 5% $0
world 2% −$19
other 1% −$14
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -33.1% -39.5% 38% 29% -14.1%
≤30d 574 -48.9% -53.7% 20% 18% -17.2%
≤90d 746 -33.2% -39.6% 19% 18% -11.7%
all 746 -33.2% -39.6% 19% 18% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.6% 18% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.4% 17% -20.2%
15% -50.7% 16% -27.9%
20% -55.5% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$1,069
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses145 / 601
Open positions1
Markets (closed)746 / 747
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day60.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $74 $60 −$14 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $110 +$62 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $46 −$14 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $85 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $85 −$53 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$21 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $125 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $85 −$42 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$18 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$23 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$26 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$29 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$23 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$17 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $33 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $24 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $37 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $13 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.04 · official $60.04 (match) · 3500 history records