Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc11e…786c crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+4%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%107W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$70
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.8% -47.4% 50% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 17 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 41% -16.1%
≤90d 198 -17.8% -25.6% 54% 43% -10.3%
all 198 -17.8% -25.6% 54% 43% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 43% -10.3%
10% -32.8% 28% -18.9%
15% -39.3% 16% -26.7%
20% -45.2% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses107 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)198 / 198
History coverage79d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 198 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$20 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$55 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $98 +$27 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $75 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 30 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 27 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 23 $125 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 23 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 23 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 17 $17 +$18 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 17 $65 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 17 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 16 $43 −$23 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 16 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 16 $23 −$19 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records