Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc11c…8d8a sports 116 markets active 5d ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$315 (-5%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%49W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$426
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$147
other 9% −$194
politics 0% −$20
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 41% -24.6%
≤30d 61 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 46% -12.4%
≤90d 65 -17.6% -25.4% 46% 43% -13.7%
all 116 -18.2% -26.0% 42% 38% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 38% -14.9%
10% -33.1% 34% -23.0%
15% -39.5% 31% -30.5%
20% -45.5% 22% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses49 / 67
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage216d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -32%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $441 −$439 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$40 +39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $379 +$23 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$57 +56%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 +$98 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $245 +$45 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $111 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $298 +$50 +17%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$21 -68%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$30 +149%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $71 +$35 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $202 +$96 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $17 +$12 +70%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $112 +$44 +39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $66 +$64 +98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $30 +$16 +53%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $319 −$38 -12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 +$38 +123%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $29 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $35 +$26 +74%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $32 +$28 +85%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $34 +$28 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$6 -61%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 +$35 +139%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$29 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$26 +74%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $60 +$78 +128%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 +$36 +272%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $441 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $141 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $402 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 94¢ $379 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $158 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 63¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $300 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 67¢ $202 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 18¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $290 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 84¢ $245 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 4¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $56 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $348 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 90¢ $97 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 83¢ $201 6d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 46¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 19¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records