Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc11a…a112 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$26
politics 28% −$14
sports 16% −$7
crypto 7% −$4
culture 5% −$4
finance 3% −$7
world 3% −$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 106 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 123 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 113
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage99d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $53 $0 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $191 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $43 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $172 −$2 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $146 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $237 −$2 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $276 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $100 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $65 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $331 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $61 $0 +0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $44 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $60 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $62 9h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $55 10h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $31 16h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $25 16h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $53 16h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $13 24h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $40 24h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $44 24h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $45 30h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $57 31h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $57 35h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $49 36h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $51 42h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $68 42h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $68 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $37 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $54 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $55 3d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $54 3d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $54 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.89 · official $43.89 (match) · 453 history records