Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C1 0xc119…0162 sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,162 (-15%) realized −$10,100 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 51L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1,243est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$311
14 days−$293
30 days−$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$14,355
other 13% +$3,464
world 0% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +55.2% +40.4% 68% 68% +30.3%
≤30d 26 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -47.2%
≤90d 96 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 44% -23.8%
all 96 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 44% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 44% -23.8%
10% -18.6% 44% -31.1%
15% -26.5% 38% -37.8%
20% -33.7% 32% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$516 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$10,100
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,243
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 113
History coverage80d
Avg bet$610
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 55¢ 54¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 38¢ $51 $40 −$11 (-21%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire Jun 25 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$21 +69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $45 +$68 +152%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$24 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $54 −$33 -62%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia Jun 24 $25 +$39 +152%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$28 +111%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on Jun 23 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 −$2 -10%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 −$35 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $26 +$67 +263%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$18 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $54 +$49 +91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Jun 20 $25 +$30 +119%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $24 +$24 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $50 −$37 -74%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $86 −$4 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $399 −$394 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $506 −$344 -68%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $538 −$32 -6%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $1,234 −$1,234 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $594 +$319 +54%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $300 −$94 -31%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $549 −$161 -29%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $315 −$14 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 25 $343 +$79 +23%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $203 +$193 +95%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $304 +$241 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $288 −$285 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $947 −$321 -34%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $560 −$83 -15%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 $4,000 −$3,931 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 20 $887 −$887 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 20 $268 −$268 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 16 $300 −$28 -9%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 16 $700 −$689 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $1,800 −$922 -51%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 15 $1,000 −$819 -82%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 15 $1,000 +$289 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $52 19m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $57 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U BUY 31¢ $50 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY 47¢ $50 7h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 45¢ $46 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 43¢ $49 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $51 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $31 29h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $41 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 39¢ $41 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $45 33h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $21 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $54 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia BUY 39¢ $25 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY 26¢ $27 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on BUY 62¢ $25 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $25 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $23 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $25 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $35 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY 27¢ $26 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $25 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 41¢ $50 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 51¢ $50 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 44¢ $51 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY 44¢ $25 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 36¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.67 · official $99.84 · 275 history records