Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc118…18e2 weather 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,430 (+26%) realized +$1,578 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%140W / 256L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$229
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% +$1,309
politics 29% −$148
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +32.5% +19.8% 29% 29% +7.6%
≤30d 72 +32.2% +19.6% 28% 26% -22.0%
≤90d 396 +31.2% +18.7% 35% 30% +19.4%
all 396 +31.2% +18.7% 35% 30% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.7% 30% +19.4%
10% ← realistic here +7.3% 25% +8.0%
15% -3.0% 22% -2.4%
20% -12.5% 19% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$5 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$1,578
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses140 / 256
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)396 / 399
History coverage57d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $150 $298 +$148 (+99%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +109%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +786%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -90%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $15 +$21 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $17 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $23 +$38 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$53 +3432%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$3 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $24 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $10 +$98 +1027%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$6 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $20 +$38 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 01 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $23 −$18 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31? May 31 $9 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 8m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 14¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.23 · official $301.23 (match) · 2123 history records