trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 43¢ | 26¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-39%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 60¢ | 50¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Paris: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Diane Parry | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 56¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10? | Yes | 86¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca | Joao Fonseca | 65¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +40% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | May 13 | $5 | +$1 | +21% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Paris: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Diane Parry | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? | May 12 | $2 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca | May 09 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev | May 01 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | May 01 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils | May 01 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 16 | -23.3% | -30.6% | 62% | 50% | -24.6% |
| all | 16 | -23.3% | -30.6% | 62% | 50% | -24.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.6% | 50% | -24.6% |
| 10% | -37.2% | 19% | -31.9% |
| 15% | -43.3% | 12% | -38.4% |
| 20% | -48.9% | 6% | -44.5% |