Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc117…78b7 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+21%) realized +$65 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$44
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-65.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -61.4% -65.0% 20% 20% -62.0%
≤30d 5 -61.4% -65.0% 20% 20% -62.0%
≤90d 5 -61.4% -65.0% 20% 20% -62.0%
all 5 -61.4% -65.0% 20% 20% -62.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.0% 20% -62.0%
10% -68.4% 20% -65.6%
15% -71.4% 20% -68.9%
20% -74.2% 20% -72.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $60 $37 −$23 (-38%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 52¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$6 +93%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 1h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 14h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 35h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 9¢ $62 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.94 · official $69.94 (match) · 11 history records