Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C1 0xc114…5013 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$148 (+12%) realized +$309 · open −$161

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$133per market

Trades / day10.4pace

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+19.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+32.4%	+19.8%	100%	50%	+29.5%
≤30d	4	+32.4%	+19.8%	100%	50%	+29.5%
≤90d	4	+32.4%	+19.8%	100%	50%	+29.5%
all	4	+32.4%	+19.8%	100%	50%	+29.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.8%	50%	+29.5%
10%	+8.3%	50%	+17.1%
15%	-2.2%	50%	+5.8%
20%	-11.8%	25%	-4.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$504

Realized+$309

Unrealized−$161

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$133

Trades / day10.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	46¢	$350	$210	−$140 (-40%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	93¢	96¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	87¢	68¢	$100	$79	−$21 (-21%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$113	+$86	+76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$2	+2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$303	+$138	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 16	$11	+$1	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$353	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$100	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	56¢	$113	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$11	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$5	26h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	93¢	$100	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$303	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.28 · official $508.89 (match) · 15 history records