Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc112…4dcd other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$293 (+25%) realized +$294 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 48L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$129
14 days+$14
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$157
sports 42% +$163
crypto 6% −$9
world 2% −$22
economics 2% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 41% 41% +17.7%
≤30d 59 -21.7% -29.2% 27% 27% +3.7%
≤90d 70 -16.3% -24.3% 31% 30% +12.4%
all 70 -16.3% -24.3% 31% 30% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 30% +12.4%
10% -31.5% 30% +1.7%
15% -38.1% 30% -8.1%
20% -44.2% 30% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$12 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$294
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 75
History coverage59d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$17 +162%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$18 +116%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +478%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$36 +141%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$76 +212%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 1? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 41m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $33 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 5h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $10 10h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $59 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.90 · official $47.90 (match) · 167 history records