Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc10c…582a crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,004 (-11%) realized −$1,002 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$808per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$1,006
crypto 38% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 9 -2.0% -11.3% 89% 0% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -23.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -31.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -37.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1,007 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$2,533
Realized−$1,002
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage613d
Avg bet$808
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,535 $1,533 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Jun 05 $61 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Jun 05 $168 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $514 +$2 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 29 $513 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,011 −$1,007 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,535 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $168 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 99¢ $61 422d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 422d
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio BUY No 100¢ $2 422d
Dogecoin all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 422d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $68 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $212 461d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $150 461d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $152 461d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $513 511d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 36¢ $4,004 602d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 45¢ $5,011 613d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,533.15 · official $2,533.15 (match) · 23 history records