Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc109…766f crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$27 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%61W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$109
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$66
other 4% −$8
politics 1% −$4
sports 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.7% -14.7% 56% 25% -0.6%
≤30d 83 -14.7% -22.8% 61% 30% -16.0%
≤90d 110 -21.7% -29.2% 55% 30% -17.3%
all 110 -21.7% -29.2% 55% 30% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 30% -17.3%
10% -36.0% 15% -25.2%
15% -42.2% 8% -32.4%
20% -47.8% 5% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses61 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $36 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $76 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 01 $51 −$37 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.20 · official $8.20 (match) · 327 history records