Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc109…450b
world · 244 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$651 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$393 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,649
Realized+$393
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 72
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions123
Markets (closed)132 / 244
History coverage46d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day71.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 123 History 132 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$129
14 days+$218
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $531 $543 +$13 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $227 $236 +$9 (+4%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 92¢ $52 $64 +$13 (+24%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $53 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 32¢ $75 $51 −$24 (-32%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $45 $40 −$6 (-12%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 52¢ 50¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 60¢ 58¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 61¢ 82¢ $27 $37 +$9 (+35%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $51 $36 −$15 (-30%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $30 $33 +$4 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 81¢ 93¢ $28 $33 +$4 (+15%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 67¢ 57¢ $37 $32 −$5 (-14%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-12%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 68¢ 86¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 44¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $31 +$24 +78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$13 -88%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $56 +$11 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $70 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$9 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 08 $23 −$1 -6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $14 +$6 +41%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? Jun 08 $16 −$5 -28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $14 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +160%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 08 $2 $0 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 08 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 08 $2 $0 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +137%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $77 −$42 -55%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 08 $41 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $66 −$35 -53%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? Jun 08 $30 −$13 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 77% +$236
other 9% −$155
finance 6% +$32
sports 4% −$59
politics 2% +$12
weather 2% +$318
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $3 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $2 12m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 12m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $20 15m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $2 15m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $2 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 23m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $2 25m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 32m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $4 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $3 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $0 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $0 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -3.0% -12.3% 35% 31% -10.1%
≤30d 120 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 39% -9.3%
≤90d 132 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 38% -5.3%
all 132 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 38% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 38% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 27% -14.3%
15% -26.6% 19% -22.6%
20% -33.8% 15% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,648.63 · official $2,643.59 (match) · 3500 history records