Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc108…6f71 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$4
other 13% −$1
politics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 2% −$8
weather 2% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.2%
all 41 -5.4% -14.4% 24% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -11.2%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.7%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $99 −$4 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $12 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $8 $0 -5%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $5 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $5 $0 -2%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -77%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 11 $15 −$2 -11%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 22 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $26 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $10 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $36 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $16 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $17 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records