Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C1 0xc108…af8e sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$287 (+35%) realized +$291 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$233
14 days+$278
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$98
other 38% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 62% +36.6%
≤30d 22 +22.2% +10.6% 68% 64% +30.0%
≤90d 22 +22.2% +10.6% 68% 64% +30.0%
all 24 +17.7% +6.5% 67% 62% +29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 62% +29.4%
10% -3.7% 58% +17.0%
15% -13.0% 54% +5.7%
20% -21.5% 42% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage236d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 +$70 +172%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$41 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $123 +$132 +107%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 +$31 +52%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$3 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$8 +44%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$10 +59%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 08 $23 +$13 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $15 +$6 +37%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $18 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $61 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 39h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $60 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $255 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $1 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $61 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $30 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $10 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $64 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $28 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.94 · official $145.95 (match) · 57 history records