Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc106…c26c sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$107
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$129
other 25% −$59
crypto 23% −$72
weather 2% −$13
tech 1% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -12.4% -20.8% 31% 29% -22.8%
≤30d 78 -5.9% -14.8% 33% 31% -8.8%
≤90d 78 -5.9% -14.8% 33% 31% -8.8%
all 78 -5.9% -14.8% 33% 31% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 31% -8.8%
10% -23.0% 27% -17.5%
15% -30.4% 27% -25.5%
20% -37.2% 23% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -11%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -90%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 $0 -8%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$21 +105%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$32 +308%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$19 +183%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$13 -83%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $26 −$7 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 9h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 12h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 19h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 20h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 20h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 20h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 20h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 20h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 20h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 20h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 20h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 20h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 20h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 20h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 21h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 40h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 40h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.37 · official $49.37 (match) · 177 history records