Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc104…5faa sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,794 (-47%) realized −$2,694 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%14W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$339
14 days−$378
30 days−$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,867
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-60.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -88.8% -89.9% 7% 7% -92.2%
≤90d 82 -55.8% -60.0% 17% 17% -53.7%
all 82 -55.8% -60.0% 17% 17% -53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.0% 17% -53.7%
10% -63.8% 16% -58.1%
15% -67.3% 16% -62.2%
20% -70.5% 13% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$66 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,694
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses14 / 68
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage85d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $126 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $63 −$61 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashima May 30 $40 +$23 +56%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner May 30 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Ma May 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Bublik May 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Project 91 (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif May 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $63 −$62 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea May 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute - Map 1 Winner May 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov May 19 $58 +$72 +124%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner May 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Butvilas May 18 $54 −$53 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $67 −$21 -32%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - European Pro Leag May 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 18 $53 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winner May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 16 $59 −$58 -97%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner May 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 14 $109 −$107 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 5star - Map 2 Winner May 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 5star - Map 1 Winner May 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $110 −$107 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner May 13 $121 −$119 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 13 $121 −$118 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $110 −$109 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $166 −$162 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $19 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe May 02 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 02 $160 −$156 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 02 $101 +$89 +87%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 01 $18 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $109 −$106 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $53 −$52 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $57 +$316 +549%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 26¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 73¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 8¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 14¢ $39 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 13¢ $73 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 27¢ $126 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $97 6d
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 18¢ $12 13d
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 21¢ $29 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu BUY 100 Thieves 34¢ $63 19d
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashima SELL Nakashima 69¢ $63 19d
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashima BUY Nakashima 43¢ $40 19d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 33¢ $86 19d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 33¢ $17 20d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Heroic 15¢ $30 21d
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Procyon Gaming 24¢ $9 27d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Ma BUY Metizport 28¢ $47 28d
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Bublik BUY Bublik 50¢ $61 28d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Project 91 (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif BUY Project 91 26¢ $30 30d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner BUY Falcons Force 11¢ $10 30d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S BUY 100 Thieves 39¢ $57 30d
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov BUY Hugo Gaston 53¢ $63 30d
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 25¢ $28 30d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $101 30d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Grigor Dimitrov 79¢ $129 30d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 34¢ $58 30d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu BUY Rune Eaters 27¢ $41 30d
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN Academy 22¢ $28 31d
Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Butvilas BUY Sonego 43¢ $54 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 117 history records