Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc104…f24f sports 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$538 (-1%) realized −$579 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate52%97W / 90L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$114
14 days+$27
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,557
crypto 19% +$282
other 19% +$393
world 7% −$52
politics 2% +$223
economics 1% −$7
finance 1% −$16
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.2% +17.8% 60% 30% +27.9%
≤30d 64 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 20% -7.2%
≤90d 187 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 11% -10.3%
all 187 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 11% -10.3%
10% -24.9% 6% -18.9%
15% -32.2% 5% -26.7%
20% -38.8% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$663) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$39 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses97 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions11
Markets (closed)187 / 201
History coverage90d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 35¢ 39¢ $250 $281 +$31 (+13%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Samsung Lions 48¢ 49¢ $218 $224 +$5 (+2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $178 $193 +$14 (+8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Leon Goretzka join Juventus? No 89¢ 71¢ $58 $46 −$12 (-20%)
Will Leon Goretzka join Newcastle United? No 52¢ 96¢ $21 $38 +$17 (+82%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 55¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Will Leon Goretzka join Juventus? Yes 12¢ 29¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+145%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 23¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Chelsea? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Manchester City? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+240%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan? Jun 23 $41 +$6 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by July 1, 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marcus Rashford join Napoli? Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom R Jun 18 $2 $0 -17%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Cyber Hero - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $28 +$24 +86%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 −$26 -25%
Game Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HARD GRIND (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $844 −$18 -2%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $84 −$27 -32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Joshua Kimmich be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $40 +$11 +28%
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Bruno Guimaraes be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +30%
Will Tijjani Reijnders be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +106%
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 08 $455 +$223 +49%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific Lea Jun 08 $0 $0 -56%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +66%
Game Handicap: TS (-3.5) vs Verso Time (+3.5) Jun 07 $0 $0 -50%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Contin Jun 07 $3 $0 +12%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time (BO7) - MLBB Conti Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: Verso Time (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 07 $250 −$247 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $251 $0 +0%
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,004 +$149 +15%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 06 $550 −$2 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Vamos - Game 4 Winne Jun 06 $0 $0 -90%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MPL Ma Jun 06 $2 $0 -11%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aterion Esports vs Team Spirit Academy White Jun 05 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $151 −$9 -6%
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 05 $658 +$4 +1%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Kor BUY 20¢ $31 24h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 54¢ $7 24h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 41¢ $25 24h
Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan? SELL No 93¢ $3 25h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers BUY Samsung Lions 47¢ $1 2d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 57¢ $1 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 37¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $100 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 37¢ $106 2d
Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by July 1, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 3d
Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Leon Goretzka join Juventus? SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $218 3d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 57¢ $129 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 36¢ $2 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 36¢ $27 3d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 54¢ $3 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 1¢ $0 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 6¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 5¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 5¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 4¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 9¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 13¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 11¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 11¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 14¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 11¢ $1 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 11¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.17 · official $878.16 (match) · 1456 history records