Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc103…ccc3 crypto 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate78%323W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$52
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$25
politics 15% −$2
sports 13% −$31
other 11% −$18
world 5% −$14
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.4% -40.7% 40% 40% -42.3%
≤30d 51 -10.6% -19.1% 75% 20% -17.9%
≤90d 224 -2.7% -12.0% 83% 5% -11.2%
all 412 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -10.9%
10% -19.9% 2% -19.5%
15% -27.7% 2% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses323 / 89
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)412 / 415
History coverage141d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 38¢ 48¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 32¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $8 +$3 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$10 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 +$5 +61%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $5 +$9 +163%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $5 +$3 +60%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 Jun 05 $15 +$1 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $5 +$2 +29%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6PM ET May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6PM ET May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 38¢ $9 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $7 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $10 3d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 49¢ $4 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 71¢ $2 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 71¢ $7 5d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 70¢ $5 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 69¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 61¢ $7 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $10 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $10 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $5 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $8 7d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 82¢ $5 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $8 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $0 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 9d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $7 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 62¢ $5 11d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 11d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 11d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 11d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 77¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.78 (match) · 2137 history records