Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc102…365a crypto 232 markets active 3h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$196 (+3%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate87%202W / 30L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$224
14 days+$157
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +5.8% -4.2% 94% 55% -4.3%
≤30d 232 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 61% -7.7%
≤90d 232 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 61% -7.7%
all 232 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 61% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 61% -7.7%
10% -18.1% 14% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 1% -24.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$25 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses202 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage15d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$7 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $49 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $16 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $36 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $42 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $34 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $45 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $45 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $43 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $45 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 519 history records