Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc101…e6d1 other 725 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 196d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$712 (+2%) realized +$2,164 · open −$1,452
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%276W / 351L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$3,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$70
14 days−$70
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$261
finance 4% −$82
crypto 4% −$128
world 3% +$484
tech 2% −$207
sports 2% +$22
politics 1% +$109
economics 0% −$62
culture 0% +$123
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -68.8% -71.7% 11% 11% -35.6%
≤30d 21 -38.6% -44.4% 24% 24% -15.9%
≤90d 181 -2.2% -11.5% 35% 31% +3.5%
all 627 +13.2% +2.5% 44% 37% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 37% -2.9%
10% -7.4% 28% -12.2%
15% -16.3% 24% -20.7%
20% -24.5% 21% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$24 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$3,717
Realized+$2,164
Unrealized−$1,452
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses276 / 351
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions98
Markets (closed)627 / 725
History coverage196d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $342 $287 −$54 (-16%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 5¢ 60¢ $20 $242 +$222 (+1110%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 23¢ 68¢ $70 $210 +$140 (+200%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $106 $124 +$18 (+17%)
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $139 $118 −$21 (-15%)
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 37¢ $177 $111 −$66 (-37%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 9¢ 31¢ $30 $106 +$76 (+252%)
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 49¢ $130 $98 −$32 (-25%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $168 $97 −$71 (-42%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $173 $96 −$77 (-45%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 17¢ $168 $94 −$74 (-44%)
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $83 $80 −$3 (-4%)
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 46¢ 26¢ $137 $76 −$60 (-44%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $70 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 64¢ $29 $64 +$35 (+122%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $74 $63 −$11 (-15%)
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $75 $63 −$13 (-17%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $34 $63 +$29 (+86%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 22¢ 27¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $82 $61 −$21 (-26%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $76 $61 −$15 (-20%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 60¢ $78 $57 −$21 (-27%)
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $110 $48 −$62 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $56 +$101 +181%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $51 −$49 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $87 −$40 -46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$14 -47%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $100 +$328 +328%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 27 $35 +$7 +21%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 27 $90 −$39 -43%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 27 $300 −$122 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $39 −$29 -75%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $48 −$46 -98%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 21 $101 +$45 +44%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $21 +$5 +22%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $51 +$46 +89%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $102 +$90 +88%
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch? Apr 29 $176 −$8 -4%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Apr 29 $16 +$13 +81%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 28 $40 +$5 +13%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 24 $66 +$48 +73%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 23 $36 −$36 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 23 $39 −$39 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $25 −$24 -98%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? Apr 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? Apr 23 $63 −$11 -18%
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? Apr 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $10 +$21 +212%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $19 +$53 +279%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $30 +$50 +167%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$8 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $34 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes 0¢ $5 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 22¢ $50 57m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $30 58m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $28 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $112 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $45 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $10 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $30 11h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 5¢ $20 14h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $56 14h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $70 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 14h
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY No 3¢ $10 5d
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 1¢ $1 5d
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 10¢ $5 5d
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 0¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 24¢ $31 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $26 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $14 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $11 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 15¢ $35 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 15¢ $43 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,716.73 · official $3,716.11 (match) · 3500 history records