Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0fd…c463 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 25% +$1
politics 14% $0
tech 6% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 0% -9.0%
all 27 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.41 per $1 lost it wins $9.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage382d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 58m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $4 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 13¢ $3 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $24 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.66 · official $43.66 (match) · 94 history records