Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0fd…bcc6 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%49W / 84L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3
other 33% +$3
sports 21% $0
politics 5% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.6% -11.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 27 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 133 -0.4% -9.9% 37% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses49 / 84
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)133 / 136
History coverage461d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $81 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $158 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $38 −$5 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $275 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $136 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $160 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $96 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $319 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $196 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $138 +$11 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $36 −$6 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $65 −$3 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $92 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $64 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $87 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $412 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $616 +$2 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $654 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $819 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $654 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 16 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $41 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $38 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $1 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $54 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $48 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $58 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $91 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $88 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $86 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $95 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $95 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.51 · official $45.23 (match) · 525 history records