Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0f4…b1db other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-34%) realized −$74 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$40
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$8
sports 16% −$2
crypto 15% −$15
world 6% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -31.0% -37.5% 26% 26% -30.3%
≤30d 33 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 30% -27.4%
≤90d 33 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 30% -27.4%
all 33 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 30% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -27.4%
10% -36.3% 30% -34.3%
15% -42.4% 30% -40.7%
20% -48.1% 30% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$51 +500%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$4 +108%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +132%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +164%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$2 +180%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 62¢ $62 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $0 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.21 · official $34.21 (match) · 75 history records