Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc0f4…012d crypto 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-1%) realized −$81 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%139W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$241
other 31% −$61
sports 4% +$101
tech 1% −$19
world 0% −$17
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -64.1% -67.6% 20% 0% -27.0%
≤90d 109 -14.2% -22.3% 49% 36% -9.7%
all 262 -8.8% -17.4% 53% 37% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -12.1%
10% -25.3% 28% -20.5%
15% -32.6% 18% -28.2%
20% -39.2% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses139 / 123
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)262 / 266
History coverage155d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $231 $229 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $232 $227 −$6 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $147 $120 −$28 (-19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $112 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? May 31 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May? May 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $80 +$5 +7%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $369 +$58 +16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $35 +$10 +28%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $182 +$62 +34%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $38 +$16 +43%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $22 +$7 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 26 $12 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 26 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 25 $16 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 25 $155 +$25 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 24 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 24 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $19 +$2 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 23 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 22 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 22 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 22 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 22 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 22 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 22 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$14 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 22 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 22 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 22 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 22 $47 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 22 $49 −$45 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $61 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $177 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $366 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $60 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $69 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $75 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $79 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $807 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 38h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 38h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $33 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.77 · official $687.77 (match) · 1794 history records