Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0f3…ceed other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+18%) realized +$52 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$94
sports 46% +$148
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +35.9% +22.9% 50% 38% +157.9%
≤30d 12 +8.9% -1.5% 42% 33% +75.4%
≤90d 28 +9.0% -1.4% 46% 43% +25.1%
all 55 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 44% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 44% +5.3%
10% -16.7% 40% -4.7%
15% -24.7% 33% -14.0%
20% -32.1% 27% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage148d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$41 +336%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 −$6 -55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $7 +$2 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 +$1 +114%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $27 +$20 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $2 $0 +20%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $68 +$82 +121%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 16 $1 $0 +30%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 +$2 +181%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $1 +$1 +82%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $3 +$1 +35%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-30? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 30 $2 $0 +20%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $1 +$5 +525%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $54 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 47h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 16d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 41d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 41d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 75¢ $9 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 43d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 44d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 128 history records