Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0f1…92d2 sports 512 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,590 (-1%) realized −$1,587 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate90%461W / 50L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$647
7 days−$384
14 days−$1,686
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$738
crypto 17% −$1,080
other 2% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 29% -12.4%
≤30d 344 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 511 -2.2% -11.5% 90% 17% -10.7%
all 511 -2.2% -11.5% 90% 17% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 17% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 4% -19.3%
15% -27.7% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$168 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$1,587
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses461 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)511 / 512
History coverage55d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $498 $496 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $96 +$1 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $493 +$5 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $422 +$72 +17%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $409 +$12 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $406 +$4 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $130 +$11 +9%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $235 +$15 +6%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $364 +$15 +4%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $346 +$18 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $296 +$50 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $267 +$29 +11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $241 +$26 +11%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $223 +$17 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $203 +$20 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $184 +$20 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $172 +$13 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $164 +$7 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $146 +$16 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $139 +$7 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $115 +$24 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $98 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$51 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $999 −$999 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $875 +$46 +5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $1,068 +$32 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $915 +$48 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $974 +$40 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $941 +$29 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $884 +$64 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $168 +$91 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $291 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $500 41m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $96 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $15 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $498 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $105 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $49 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $338 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $494 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $3 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $419 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $422 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $409 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $10 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $19 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $361 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $2 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 100¢ $141 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $250 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 94¢ $14 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 94¢ $235 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.52 · official $495.52 (match) · 1658 history records