Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc0ed…a802 crypto 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$630 (-5%) realized −$595 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%164W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$308
14 days+$317
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$229
crypto 47% −$782
other 4% −$126
finance 0% −$40
weather 0% −$40
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +237.9% +205.7% 75% 62% +94.2%
≤30d 10 +183.6% +156.6% 70% 60% +76.2%
≤90d 270 +7.3% -2.9% 61% 60% -15.2%
all 270 +7.3% -2.9% 61% 60% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 60% -15.2%
10% -12.2% 55% -23.3%
15% -20.7% 48% -30.7%
20% -28.5% 34% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$46 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$595
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses164 / 106
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions3
Markets (closed)270 / 273
History coverage82d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 71¢ 61¢ $112 $96 −$17 (-15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $39 $21 −$18 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +303%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$73 +1454%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$32 +81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 +$170 +170%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $60 +$57 +95%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 22 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 15 $382 −$367 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 14 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 14 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 14 $5 +$40 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 14 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 14 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 14 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 14 $41 +$17 +42%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 13 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 13 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 13 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 13 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $100 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 71¢ $114 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $69 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.13 · official $155.14 (match) · 497 history records