Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc0eb…2c46 crypto 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$705 (-9%) realized −$705 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%102W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$8
14 days−$0
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$1,209
other 15% +$154
sports 4% −$216
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -10.4% -18.9% 26% 26% -7.8%
≤30d 222 -27.3% -34.2% 32% 29% -24.3%
≤90d 327 -28.4% -35.2% 31% 29% -26.1%
all 327 -28.4% -35.2% 31% 29% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 29% -26.1%
10% -41.4% 26% -33.2%
15% -47.1% 22% -39.6%
20% -52.3% 21% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$705
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses102 / 225
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 333
History coverage36d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists Jun 27 $9 +$17 +180%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$2 -48%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $52 +$38 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 +$20 +49%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $11 −$8 -73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$7 -66%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 +$20 +105%
Rayan: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 +$29 +556%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$51 +496%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$22 +216%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $11 +$15 +130%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $9 +$12 +129%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 20 $12 +$58 +474%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $15 +$11 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Canada vs. Qatar: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Noah Okafor: 1+ assists Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$4 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 1h
Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 1h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals SELL Yes $3 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 18¢ $9 2h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 2h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $9 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 17¢ $10 17h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 17h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 65¢ $40 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $52 25h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes $3 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $11 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 69¢ $11 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY $3 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $4 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 47h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $12 2d
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 3d
Rayan: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $34 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND BUY 11¢ $10 3d
Rayan: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes $10 3d
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.65 · official $27.40 · 615 history records