Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0e8…51c5 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 29% +$1
sports 9% +$1
politics 9% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -1.1% -10.6% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 39 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage279d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $69 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $69 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 26 $32 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $28 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $5 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $34 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $34 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $37 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $34 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $34 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 89¢ $17 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 89¢ $13 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $32 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $4 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $4 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $33 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $2 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $35 33d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $25 108d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $2 186d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $6 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records