Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C0
0xc0e8…ce99
other · 55 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$36 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$17
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage600d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $7 +$5 +83%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $7 +$12 +172%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $70 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $8 +$5 +59%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $7 +$7 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $93 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $93 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $13,540 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $26 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $7 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 81% −$13
politics 10% −$7
other 6% +$18
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$35
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 3h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 38h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 41h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 42h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $7 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $14 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $11 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 20% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 16 +15.8% +4.8% 19% 12% -6.3%
≤90d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 15% -10.3%
all 54 +4.6% -5.3% 22% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 11% -9.7%
10% -14.4% 11% -18.4%
15% -22.7% 11% -26.2%
20% -30.3% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.60 · official $16.60 (match) · 246 history records