Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0e6…7358 sports 615 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19,775 (+17%) realized +$19,124 · open +$651
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%280W / 326L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$772est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$868
7 days+$701
14 days+$7,571
30 days+$9,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$20,730
other 18% −$2,180
crypto 2% +$254
world 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +4.4% -5.6% 49% 49% -5.9%
≤30d 158 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 48% +9.9%
≤90d 264 -22.1% -29.6% 41% 39% -4.1%
all 606 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 44% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 44% +5.5%
10% -22.7% 43% -4.6%
15% -30.2% 40% -13.8%
20% -37.0% 33% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$118 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$5,428
Realized+$19,124
Unrealized+$651
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses280 / 326
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions6
Markets (closed)606 / 615
History coverage594d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 606 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 63¢ 78¢ $1,512 $1,884 +$372 (+25%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 89¢ 96¢ $1,424 $1,536 +$112 (+8%)
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Hapoel Tel-Aviv 54¢ 62¢ $907 $1,047 +$139 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $732 $763 +$31 (+4%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $194 +$357 +184%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $125 +$175 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,419 +$441 +31%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $500 −$495 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $599 −$595 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $148 +$202 +137%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $393 +$245 +62%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $196 −$195 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $448 −$444 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $355 +$195 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$139 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +129%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,454 +$2,418 +98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $353 +$247 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $733 +$405 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $225 +$525 +234%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,014 −$700 -69%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $676 −$668 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,503 +$2,450 +163%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $162 −$160 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $911 −$904 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $256 −$253 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $597 −$590 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,308 −$55 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $143 +$157 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $542 −$370 -68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $476 −$392 -82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,059 −$1,040 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $311 −$307 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $170 +$158 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $187 −$184 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $316 +$138 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $85 −$5 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,373 +$2,649 +193%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6,000 +$7,113 +118%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,373 −$2,345 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $269 −$262 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $375 −$200 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $552 48m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 54¢ $459 54m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 53¢ $312 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 55¢ $3 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 55¢ $3 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 55¢ $27 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 55¢ $102 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 55¢ $3 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 55¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $52 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 3h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 46¢ $3 5h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 46¢ $1 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $83 20h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 20h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $153 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,860 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $224 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 63¢ $64 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $597 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $597 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $746 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 22¢ $205 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,428.43 · official $5,428.43 (match) · 2260 history records