Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0e4…f667 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
politics 28% −$11
sports 13% +$22
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 115 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage133d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $232 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $444 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $569 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $296 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 29h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 24d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 26d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $232 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $262 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $262 28d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $253 28d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $253 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $292 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $292 30d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $239 32d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 32d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 33d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 34d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $251 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 341 history records