Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0e4…ec0d world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$4
other 19% $0
politics 18% $0
culture 8% $0
economics 7% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 8% -8.4%
all 47 -1.1% -10.6% 21% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage296d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $40 +$2 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $6 −$2 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $39 +$4 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $25 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 17 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 10 $7 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $46 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $46 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $40 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $10 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $34 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $45 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $24 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $22 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $39 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.63 · official $41.63 (match) · 137 history records