Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc0e2…ea50 crypto 195 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+4%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate82%160W / 35L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$35
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -8.1% -16.9% 71% 64% -17.8%
≤30d 195 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 65% -7.6%
≤90d 195 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 65% -7.6%
all 195 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 65% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 65% -7.6%
10% -13.4% 31% -16.4%
15% -21.8% 10% -24.5%
20% -29.4% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses160 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records