Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0db…bc90 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 423d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
politics 30% +$2
other 22% +$27
culture 8% +$1
economics 3% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 17% -8.3%
≤30d 11 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 9% -9.5%
all 36 -3.7% -12.8% 39% 6% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 6% -6.9%
10% -21.2% 3% -15.8%
15% -28.8% 3% -24.0%
20% -35.8% 3% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

423d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage423d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $53 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $39 −$2 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 -5%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $54 +$28 +52%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump attend Pope Francis' funeral? Apr 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 24 $1 −$1 -47%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 25? Apr 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? Apr 21 $85 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 71¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $29 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.70 · official $44.70 (match) · 108 history records