Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0da…7f11 crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$729 (+11%) realized +$729 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%35W / 41L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$684
7 days+$2,543
14 days+$2,543
30 days+$2,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,503
other 31% +$837
crypto 17% −$279
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +53.5% +38.9% 100% 100% +40.5%
≤30d 6 +53.5% +38.9% 100% 100% +40.5%
≤90d 6 +53.5% +38.9% 100% 100% +40.5%
all 76 -10.5% -19.1% 46% 46% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 46% +20.0%
10% -26.8% 45% +8.5%
15% -33.9% 41% -2.0%
20% -40.4% 30% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$23 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses35 / 41
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage318d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $606 +$289 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $464 +$142 +31%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $326 +$138 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $211 +$115 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,013 +$837 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 Jun 20 $980 +$1,022 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 3AM ET Aug 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 2AM ET Aug 13 $33 +$14 +42%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 1AM ET Aug 13 $21 +$12 +56%
Dodgers vs. Angels Aug 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11PM ET Aug 13 $155 −$10 -6%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 13 $100 +$45 +45%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 8PM ET Aug 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 7PM ET Aug 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET Aug 12 $201 +$166 +82%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 5PM ET Aug 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 4PM ET Aug 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 3PM ET Aug 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 2PM ET Aug 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 1PM ET Aug 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 10AM ET Aug 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 12PM ET Aug 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11AM ET Aug 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 9AM ET Aug 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 8AM ET Aug 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 7AM ET Aug 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 4AM ET Aug 12 $1 $0 +47%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6AM ET Aug 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - August 12, 5AM ET Aug 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4AM ET Aug 12 $4 +$4 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2AM ET Aug 12 $2 +$5 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 3AM ET Aug 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 11, 6PM ET Aug 12 $1 +$1 +67%
XRP Up or Down - August 11, 5PM ET Aug 11 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4PM ET Aug 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 3PM ET Aug 11 $2 +$4 +179%
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Aug 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 2PM ET Aug 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET Aug 11 $25 +$24 +96%
XRP Up or Down - August 11, 11AM ET Aug 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 11AM ET Aug 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 11AM ET Aug 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 10AM ET Aug 11 $10 +$17 +168%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 9AM ET Aug 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9AM ET Aug 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 11, 8AM ET Aug 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 6AM ET Aug 11 $2 +$1 +54%
XRP Up or Down - August 11, 8AM ET Aug 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 7AM ET Aug 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $894 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $606 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $464 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 70¢ $326 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $326 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $211 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,013 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 BUY 48¢ $980 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $47 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 2AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $33 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 1AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $33 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 314d
Dodgers vs. Angels BUY Dodgers 59¢ $100 314d
Dodgers vs. Angels BUY Dodgers 59¢ $100 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $73 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $62 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $96 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $145 314d
Pirates vs. Brewers SELL Brewers 87¢ $145 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $92 314d
Pirates vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 60¢ $100 314d
Phillies vs. Reds BUY Phillies 52¢ $50 314d
Phillies vs. Reds BUY Phillies 52¢ $50 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $75 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $42 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $100 314d
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records