Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C0 0xc0d9…da5e other 1588 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 539d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30,174 (+1%) realized +$30,170 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%1286W / 301L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,891per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,107est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,867
7 days+$5,913
14 days+$7,129
30 days+$35,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$18,332
sports 37% −$22,111
politics 6% +$56,713
world 5% +$8,291
crypto 2% +$869
culture 0% +$150
tech 0% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +3.5% -6.3% 90% 15% -5.3%
≤30d 116 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 15% +1.5%
≤90d 326 -1.0% -10.5% 89% 19% -6.0%
all 1587 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 25% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 25% -8.7%
10% -21.0% 14% -17.5%
15% -28.6% 10% -25.4%
20% -35.6% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,710) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$964 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$30,170
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1286 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1,107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1587 / 1588
History coverage540d ⚠
Avg bet$1,891
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? No 96¢ 96¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$34 +34%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $3,347 +$32 +1%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $500 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $802 +$68 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,503 +$105 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $201 +$22 +11%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $200 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $891 +$27 +3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $500 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $80 +$6 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $40,073 +$2,515 +6%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $501 +$22 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $2,002 +$83 +4%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $200 −$70 -35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $803 +$116 +14%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $401 −$91 -23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $600 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $601 +$21 +4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $801 +$21 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $351 +$25 +7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $351 +$22 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $2,501 +$49 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2,001 +$36 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7,504 +$138 +2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2,502 +$70 +3%
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3,001 +$46 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,501 +$47 +3%
Elina Svitolina vs. Eva Lys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $250 +$9 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,030 +$1,164 +19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,516 −$613 -24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,001 −$467 -47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $500 +$15 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $300 +$9 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $130 +$10 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38,182 +$2,364 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,000 +$62 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $300 +$9 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,502 +$82 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $500 +$8 +2%
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$7 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 96¢ $501 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $500 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,347 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2,001 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY No 92¢ $802 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $201 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $3,503 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $200 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 98¢ $500 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY No 97¢ $891 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 93¢ $80 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY No 94¢ $40,073 37h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 96¢ $501 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2,002 47h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL No 61¢ $130 47h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $200 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $803 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL No 74¢ $309 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 95¢ $401 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $600 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 96¢ $601 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 97¢ $801 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 93¢ $351 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $351 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,001 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $2,501 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,001 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.45 · official $500.52 (match) · 3500 history records