Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C0
0xc0d8…b1ea
other · 90 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$46 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 50
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage479d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 3 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$25
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 58¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $562 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $197 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $116 +$8 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $178 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $82 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $168 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $190 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $190 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $385 −$2 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $190 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $63 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $225 +$10 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $161 −$3 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $177 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $175 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $160 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $343 −$4 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $172 +$8 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $160 −$4 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $82 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $389 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,065 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2,238 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $376 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $353 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alain Claude Bilie By Nze win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential elec Apr 13 $19 $0 +0%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 13 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 12 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$10
economics 23% −$2
other 17% +$17
sports 15% +$4
politics 5% +$7
finance 2% +$8
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $174 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $26 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $203 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $139 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $185 23h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $8 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $116 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $26 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $90 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $54 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $34 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $90 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $112 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $83 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $68 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $105 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $50 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $193 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $168 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 8% -9.0%
≤30d 24 +1.9% -7.8% 42% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 28 +1.7% -8.0% 39% 4% -9.3%
all 87 +5.0% -5.0% 43% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 9% -9.1%
10% -14.1% 7% -17.8%
15% -22.4% 6% -25.7%
20% -30.0% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.19 (match) · 344 history records