Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0d5…ea77 sports 189 markets active 5d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%129W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$14
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$20
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% −$4
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +28.7% +16.4% 91% 91% +22.8%
≤30d 27 +26.7% +14.7% 85% 85% +15.5%
≤90d 85 +7.0% -3.2% 75% 68% +0.9%
all 187 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 63% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 63% -7.4%
10% -19.1% 47% -16.3%
15% -26.9% 35% -24.3%
20% -34.1% 22% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses129 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage159d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 90¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 07 $2 +$1 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 29 $1 +$1 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 29 $1 +$1 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 29 $2 $0 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 29 $4 +$1 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova May 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 28 $2 +$1 +46%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 28 $5 −$2 -41%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncako May 28 $2 +$2 +79%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 28 $5 +$3 +60%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maria Sakkari vs Peyton Stearns May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter May 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Paris: Shuai Zhang vs Himeno Sakatsume May 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Fiona Ferro May 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina May 12 $2 $0 +13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez May 08 $1 $0 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns May 08 $2 +$1 +46%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $3 $0 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 08 $2 +$1 +40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova May 08 $5 $0 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Xinyu Wang vs Alexandra Eala May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $1 +$1 +124%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $5 +$1 +17%
La Bisbal: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Elena Pridankina May 01 $1 $0 +49%
Cagliari: Matteo Berrettini vs Hubert Hurkacz May 01 $1 $0 +46%
Huzhou: Xiyu Wang vs Polona Hercog May 01 $1 $0 +46%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Alexandra Eala Apr 24 $1 $0 +44%
Madrid Open: Leolia Jeanjean vs Coco Gauff Apr 24 $2 $0 +5%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Panna Udvardy Apr 24 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 90¢ $2 4d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa SELL Paula Badosa 75¢ $1 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $5 5d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 57¢ $1 5d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $1 5d
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 65¢ $2 5d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 71¢ $2 5d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 74¢ $6 6d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 48¢ $1 6d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $5 6d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 60¢ $5 6d
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 62¢ $5 6d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 60¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 65¢ $5 8d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $1 8d
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk BUY Julia Adams 38¢ $2 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 81¢ $5 15d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Alexandra Eala 61¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 86¢ $2 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu BUY Maria Sakkari 65¢ $1 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 66¢ $2 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 84¢ $5 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $2 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro BUY Iva Jovic 53¢ $1 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $2 24d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncako BUY Susan Bandecchi 55¢ $2 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Victoria Mboko 62¢ $5 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana BUY Ashlyn Krueger 68¢ $2 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li BUY Marie Bouzkova 50¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.78 · official $2.78 (match) · 356 history records