Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C0 0xc0ce…be7d other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,054 (-23%) realized −$1,054 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate44%11W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$182per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$364

7 days−$398

14 days−$398

30 days−$398

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-39.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-37.1%	-43.1%	41%	35%	-19.5%
≤30d	17	-37.1%	-43.1%	41%	35%	-19.5%
≤90d	17	-37.1%	-43.1%	41%	35%	-19.5%
all	25	-32.8%	-39.2%	44%	36%	-26.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.2%	36%	-26.3%
10%	-45.0%	32%	-33.4%
15%	-50.3%	24%	-39.8%
20%	-55.2%	16%	-45.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$129 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,054

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses11 / 14

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage168d

Avg bet$182

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$586	+$147	+25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$509	+$77	+15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$82	−$82	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$335	+$174	+52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$139	−$139	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$153	+$264	+172%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$276	+$16	+6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$189	+$86	+46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22?	Jun 22	$101	−$100	-99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$105	−$103	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$49	−$48	-97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$333	−$330	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$280	−$278	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$251	+$131	+52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$118	−$115	-97%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 08	$281	−$281	-100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	Jan 06	$142	−$142	-100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	Jan 06	$87	−$87	-100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2PM ET	Jan 06	$70	+$17	+24%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 1PM ET	Jan 06	$128	−$6	-5%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 12PM ET	Jan 06	$56	+$21	+37%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 11AM ET	Jan 06	$124	+$3	+2%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 10AM ET	Jan 06	$59	+$31	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$733	30m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	79¢	$586	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$586	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$509	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$509	13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$335	16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$82	16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	35¢	$139	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$153	18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$0	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	98¢	$292	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$276	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$189	26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22?	BUY Up	67¢	$101	29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	20¢	$105	41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$49	45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$333	45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$280	47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$251	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	2¢	$118	3d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Patriots	33¢	$281	134d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$18	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$109	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$16	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	SELL Down	0¢	$0	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$63	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$25	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2PM ET	SELL Down	63¢	$87	167d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records